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Adept Economics Director Gene Tunny is excited to be a panellist at an upcoming Queensland Futures Institute (QFI) event focused on one of the most consequential – and challenging – policy questions facing the state: how Queensland should reform its tax system to support long-term growth while funding essential services. The discussion will take place at a QFI breakfast event at the InterContinental Brisbane on Wednesday, 6 May 2026.

Queensland’s current tax mix faces mounting pressure. The state government relies heavily on a combination of economically distortionary taxes, such as stamp duty and payroll tax, alongside volatile resource royalties. At the same time, population growth, housing pressures, and rising demand for infrastructure and public services are intensifying the need for a stable and sustainable revenue base.

Resource royalties illustrate both the opportunity and the uncertainty facing Queensland’s fiscal future. Coal and gas royalties have played a major role in state finances in recent decades, but their long-term outlook is uncertain as policymakers seek to decarbonise the global economy. That said, much will depend on how Queensland positions itself in relation to critical minerals–such as copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt, tungsten, graphite, vanadium, as well as silver, phosphate and rare earths–which could partially offset declines in traditional fossil fuel revenues. Whether royalties from critical minerals can provide a stable and enduring revenue base remains an open and important question.

The discussion is particularly timely given Queensland is currently running a $9 billion operating deficit according to the Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2025-26. This places renewed emphasis on the sustainability, efficiency, and stability of the state’s tax system.

Against this backdrop, the QFI event will bring together a strong panel of speakers to explore how Queensland might reform its tax system to better support jobs, investment, housing affordability, and fiscal sustainability. 

In addition to Gene, the panel includes Michael Brennan, Chief Executive Officer of the e61 Institute; Brendan Coates, Program Director for Housing and Economic Security at the Grattan Institute; and Antonia Mercorella, Chief Executive Officer of the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ).

Tax reform options on the table

While no single reform will solve all problems, several options are likely to feature prominently in the discussion:

• Replacing stamp duty with a broad-based property or land tax, a reform long advocated by economists for its efficiency benefits and a more stable revenue profile.
  
• Reforming payroll tax, which is widely viewed as a tax on jobs and business growth, particularly for firms hovering around tax thresholds.
  
• Improving coordination with federal tax settings, acknowledging that state tax reform cannot be considered in isolation from the national tax system, and changes to GST (which, while levied federally, provides revenues to the states) or handing back some income tax power to the states may be reform options.
  
• Broadening tax bases and lowering rates, rather than relying on narrow, high-rate taxes that significantly distort economic decisions.
  
• Reducing reliance on volatile revenue sources, including resource royalties, while recognising the potential role of critical minerals in Queensland’s future revenue mix.

Each of these options involves trade-offs, and a central challenge for policymakers is balancing short-term political constraints against long-term economic benefits.

The economist’s framework for thinking about tax policy

As a panellist at the QFI event, Gene will bring a clear economic framework to the discussion. Economists typically assess tax policy using a small number of well-established criteria:

• Efficiency – How much does a tax distort decisions about working, investing, saving, or moving house?
• Equity – Who ultimately bears the burden of the tax, and how are impacts distributed across income groups and generations?
  
• Simplicity and transparency – Is the tax easy to understand, comply with, and administer?
• Revenue adequacy and stability – Does it raise sufficient revenue in a reliable way over the economic cycle?
  
• Feasibility and transition costs – Can reform be implemented credibly, and how are transition issues managed?

No tax performs perfectly against all these criteria. Good tax policy is about making trade-offs explicit and choosing reforms that improve the system overall, even if they are politically difficult.

As American economist Thomas Sowell once said: 

“There are no solutions, only trade-offs.”

For instance, economists see significant efficiency gains from increasing the GST rate and using the revenue to replace other tax revenues. However, the GST is a regressive tax, as lower-income households typically spend a larger share of their income on consumption than higher-income households. There is a tradeoff between efficiency and equity here. 

Economics Explainer: How economists judge taxes

Economists don’t ask whether a tax is “good” or “bad” in isolation. Instead, they assess how well it performs against key principles such as efficiency (minimising economic distortions), equity (fairness across households and generations), simplicity, and revenue stability. A highly efficient tax may raise equity concerns, while a tax that appears fair may entail a high economic cost. Tax reform is ultimately about improving the balance across these dimensions, rather than chasing a perfect solution.

In other words, it is an art, not a science. Famously, Louis XIV’s minister of state and finance, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, said:

“The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing.”

Why this discussion matters

Tax reform is often seen as abstract or technical, but its consequences are very real. The structure of Queensland’s tax system influences housing affordability, labour mobility, business investment, and the state’s long-term capacity to fund health, education, and infrastructure.

Events like this QFI forum play an important role in lifting the quality of the public conversation. By grounding the discussion in economic principles and evidence, we can better understand what is at stake, where genuine disagreements lie, and which reforms offer the greatest potential benefits for Queensland’s future.

Gene looks forward to a robust, thoughtful discussion – and to helping ensure that economic reasoning, not just political instinct, is part of the debate.

Published on 27 January 2026. For further information, please contact us at contact@adepteconomics.com.au or call us on 1300 169 870.